Although Saturday would clear and a high of 21C is predicted, further rain would set in on Sunday. New Caledonia enjoys an oceanic semi-tropical climate with two main seasons: summer from November to April, and winter from May to September. TCO-SP is a long-range tropical cyclone outlook based on a multi-variate statistical method generated using Poisson Regression (Magee et al., 2020) recently published in Scientific Reports. This is the first year the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP) product is available and we have incorporated it into the ICU outlook to produce a consensus outlook. Figure 9. doi: 10.1002/joc.3753. Summary of analogue, dynamical and deterministic guidance for the ICU TC outlook. The system that was to become Cyclone Freda was first classified on … Journal of Climate, 26(1): 3-25. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00077.1. Elevated TC presence is expected in and around the Coral Sea and north Tasman Sea, especially during the late season between February and April. The spatial anomalies shown for this TC outlook strongly indicate reduced risk of cyclones for American Samoa, French Polynesia, and the Cook Islands. For each year noted, that represents the start of the main development season (i.e. "NZ should remain vigilant as the cyclone season unfolds. Supplied New Zealand and New Caledonia’s tropical cyclone risk … However, there is the potential for elevated activity near and west of the International Date Line (Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Coral Sea region) with normal or below normal activity to the east. Image (c) Fiji Met Service. This information feeds into the final outlook for the season seen in Table 1. Cyclone Donna is forecast to pass over the northeastern islands of the New Caledonia archipelago late on Tuesday, May 9 (local time). Near normal activity is expected for Tokelau, Fiji, Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea. Normal or slightly reduced activity is expected for Tonga, Wallis & Futuna, and Samoa. A tsunami can arrive within minutes of a tremor or earthquake. While that doesn’t bode well for residents of the tropical nation, isn’t a bad thing for surfers residing on Australia’s East Coast. Lorrey, A.M., G. Griffiths, N. Fauchereau, H.J. Most other islands to the east of the International Date Line are expected to have reduced TC risk for the season. Tropical Cyclone Uesi strengthened into a powerful storm system on Tuesday as it continued to batter New Caledonia with heavy rain and strong winds. Free phone within New Zealand: 0800 RING NIWA (0800 746 464), Copyright, NIWA. Diamond, H.J., and J.A. Figure 4: Early season (November to January; top panel) and late season (February to April; bottom panel) anomaly plots for selected TC analogue seasons (data courtesy of International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). Powerful Cyclone Yasa hits Vanuatu and Fiji and then it aims directly towards Northern Island, New Zealand! NIWA’s SW Pacific TC outlook spans four areas of responsibility overseen by international monitoring and forecast agencies (RMSC Nadi, the Australian TCWC, TCWC Port Moresby and TCWC Wellington). The new … Classification of synchronous oceanic and atmospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for palaeoclimate reconstruction. International Journal of Climatology, 34: 1157–1168. This TC count range overlaps with the analogue guidance. The interplay of hemispheric-scale atmospheric circulation with the timing of short-term Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity on a 30 to 50-day cycle has significant bearing on regional TC activity. Articles. As with most years, TC activity is expected to increase during the second half of the season from February-April. 1970 = November 1970-April 1971). Find out more about our data sources. Please be sure to comply with any instructions you may be given. Although it's possible Uesi would move into the Tasman Sea, it's not yet clear whether New Zealand would be affected by any remnants of it as an ex-tropical cyclone. New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and Meteorological Service of New Zealand (MetService) formulated this seasonal tropical cyclone outlook, along with contributions from the University of Newcastle and meteorological forecasting organizations from the Southwest Pacific, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, MeteoFrance and the Pacific Island National Meteorological Services. Note that the selection of analogue seasons in this step of the outlook relates to the high-quality TC data period in the satellite era beginning in 1969/70 (50 seasons, for which the availability of TC track data are current only to the end of the 2018/19 season), and the limited number of similar analogues to this season (including rejected analogues). It was also too early to tell whether any possible remnants could impact New Zealand, but he said there was no threat to the country this week. A new tropical cyclone formed earlier this evening local time, around 250 miles west of Vanuatu. Diamond, P.R. Chappell, and J. Renwick, 2014. In this period, in addition to high temperatures, torrential rains and strong winds can … Leroy, A., and M.C. Cyclone season is November to May, but cyclones can occur at any time. A category 3 cyclone has mean winds between 64-85 knots (118-157kmh) with a central pressure 970-945 hectopascals, Fiji's Meteorological Service states on its website. Figure 5. It's not yet clear whether any remnants of tropical cyclone Uesi will make it to New Zealand. New Caledonia Cyclone Rona–Frank affected two thirds of New Caledonia's Grande Terre island between 20–21 February. New Caledonia is an overseas territory of France, and it is made up of a main There is very good agreement across the dynamical climate models with regard to forecast rainfall, air pressure, rainfall, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Southwest Pacific. This provides confidence in the statistical outlook for expected cyclone strengths, and support for a conservative range of 3-4 severe tropical cyclones for this outlook. Much of New Zealand is in desperate need of rain, with widespread drought in the upper North Island. This seasonal outlook is for normal to below normal activity in terms of overall named cyclone systems in the region. A split of the analogue TC seasons into early (November – January) and late (February – April) periods suggests TC activity will be diminished relative to normal for the early part of the TC season, except near the north Coral Sea (Figure 4). Tropical cyclones have a significant impact across the Southwest Pacific from year to year. During weather events of this kind, sports activities are obviously strongly discouraged or prohibited depending on the official warning level. Bushfires are a risk from September to February. Despite the risk reduction in some places, cyclones are still expected for countries that typically experience one or more named cyclones per year. Previous work indicates New Zealand interacts with at least one ex-tropical cyclone passing within 550 km of the country every year on average (Lorrey et al., 2014). Elevated activity is expected in the Coral Sea offshore of Queensland, between the Solomon Islands and New Caledonia, and in the north-central Tasman Sea (including Norfolk Island). Model SST, rainfall, and air pressure guidance favour near average TC activity for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season. The Pacific Islands may be facing an increased threat of a Tropical Cyclone this coming cyclone season as NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center confirm that a La Niña climate pattern has developed in the Pacific and is likely to persist through the winter. The risk of an interaction for New Zealand (with at least one cyclone coming within 550 km of the country) for the 2020/21 season is elevated. Level 1 alerts are in place for Boulouparis, Païta, Dumbéa, Nouméa, Mont-Dore, and Ile des Pins. The predicted track of Tropical Cyclone Uesi is towards New Caledonia. New Caledonia weather and climate Whether your stay in New Caledonia falls during the hot season or the cool season, you can be sure of a delightful semi-tropical climate, with temperatures and sunshine guaranteed to make your holiday perfect! In New Caledonia, the hot season is from December to March. Cold season in New Caledonia brings daytime temperatures to around 75°F (24 °C)—less than ideal for beach-goers but perfect for hikers. New Caledonia also experiences earthquakes, tsunamis and bushfires. The available information from international forecasting centres that issue global climate outlooks and ENSO diagnostics are integrated by NIWA’s National Climate Atmosphere and Hazards Centre. The Southwest Pacific basin covers 135˚E to 120˚W, therefore the forecast generated by NIWA extends 25˚ westward than the ECMWF forecast domain. evacuation orders). Development of El Niño is highly unlikely. Diamond, H.J., A.M. Lorrey, K.R. Table 4: Expected TC counts including expected range (95% confidence intervals (CI)) for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season (October 2020 update), difference from long term average TC count (1981-2010). Cold season in New Caledonia brings daytime temperatures to around 75°F (24 °C)—less than ideal for beach-goers but perfect for hikers. Cyclone Uesi is Tracking just west of New Caladonia gusty and strong winds and large waves will better the island. Cyclone season in the region typically lasts from November to April but storms can occur outside this period. Learn more about New Caledonia’s weather and start planning your dream holiday. Cyclone season in the region typically lasts from November to April but storms can occur outside this period. A Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone climatology and linkages to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Individuals present in New Caledonia are advised to monitor local weather reports and follow all instructions as issued by local authorities (e.g. This is the first year the product is available and we have incorporated it into the ICU outlook because it provides a different view from analogue and dynamical approaches. For Uesi, I think the impact will be greatly affected by New Caledonia." This seasonal outlook is for normal to below normal activity in terms of overall named cyclone systems in the region. The ICU consensus column is based on the combined outcomes for the three aforementioned types of seasonal outlook information. Cyclones are usually formed from November to mid-May, though they are most likely from late December to early April. The chart was processed from data supplied by the US Meteorological Agency (NOAA). At present, sea surface temperature anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are cool (negative) while the central equatorial Pacific Ocean has recently been trending toward cool conditions. a Sub-regional models – where individual island TC climatology shows less than 1.5 TCs per season, geographically neighbouring exclusive economic zones (EEZs) have been merged to increase sample size (Click here for more information). Last Update - February 10, 2020. Category 5 strength cyclones, where sustained winds exceed 199 km/h, have occurred in some years (known as ‘analogue’ seasons) with similar conditions like what exists ahead of the 2020/21 season. The ICU consensus column is based on the combined outcomes for the three aforementioned types of seasonal outlook information. A southward displacement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is typically observed during La Niña and the model guidance is supportive of this shift. Analogue, dynamical and deterministic model guidance for the SW Pacific show relatively good agreement for the coming season (Table 1). For this season, elevated activity is expected for New Caledonia. However the south of the South Island is still assessing flood damage after widespread flooding caused by torrential rain last week. Be aware that New Caledonia can be hit by active tropical cyclones or storms, but such severe weather events remain unpredictable and relatively rare, mostly occurring between February and April. Elevated risk of TC activity exists for New Caledonia, while normal activity is expected for Vanuatu, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea and Tokelau (See Table 1 and Table 4; Figure 1, 2 & 3). Based on the guidance from the NIWA analogue method, a conservative range of 8-10 named TCs could be expected during the 2020/21 season for the Southwest Pacific basin (135° E – 120° W). Four of the five historic analogue seasons indicate more than one cyclone of category 4 strength or higher could occur. The table is therefore only generally indicative of how many cyclones might be expected for any given island group for the coming season. NIWA says elevated tropical cyclone presence is expected in and around the Coral Sea and north Tasman Sea, especially during the late season between February and April. During the season the most intense tropical cyclone was Severe Tropical Cyclone Beti, which reached a minimum pressure of 935 hPa (27.61 inHg) as it affected New Caledonia. The highest cyclone frequency is found in the months from January to March. Some people comment that New Caledonia is the “land of eternal spring.” However, there is distinct variety in the weather patterns throughout the year. Table 1: Island Climate Update (ICU) consensus outlook for November 2020-April 2021 tropical cyclone activity based on combining NIWA analogue model, international dynamical climate model and TCO-SP deterministic statistical model outlook results. The outlook suggests New Caledonia should prepare for stronger cyclone activity. 20 October 2020. Cyclone level 2 alerts are in effect for the communes of Houaïlou, Kouaoua, Canala, Thio, Yaté, Ouvéa, Lifou, and Maré. In the 50 years since Cyclone … We identified ten ex-tropical cyclones using five analogue seasons in this outlook that passed close to New Zealand, which gives a rounded average of 2 ex-tropical cyclones per year. Cyclones can have a devastating impact. Increased frequency and more intense TC activity can be expected during the MJO 6-7 paired phase (Diamond and Renwick, 2015). By night, it can cool down to below 60°F. Expected TC count including probable range (95% confidence intervals) for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season based on TCO-SP (Magee et al., 2020). Often, its weather is compared to that of the south of France. There is relatively low disagreement between the analogues for the total number of cyclones for this season, with the one exception being the 2007/08 season. evacuation orders). Activity in general is expected to increase during the late season, especially for islands west of the International Date Line around the Coral Sea. Table 2: The average number of TCs passing close to the main South Pacific Island groups between November and April based on analogue guidance, but contains subjective assessments in some cases to be consistent with the wishes of the national meteorological services involved in generating this regional outlook. International Journal of Climatology, 35: 676-686. doi: 10.1002/joc.4012. The South Pacific Ocean recently moved into tropical cyclone season. The cooler than average equatorial SSTs, associated with La Niña, are forecast to be enveloped by warmer than average SSTs about much of the Southwest Pacific. The method is calibrated using the IBTrACS data set and several key climate indices for the Southern Hemisphere (see Magee et al., 2020 and the supplementary material for more details). For Uesi, I think the impact will be greatly affected by New Caledonia." For the coming season, the risk for an ex-tropical cyclone affecting New Zealand is considered above normal. Developed by a … They can cause landslides and flooding, and may disrupt essential services. Atmospheric circulation patterns over French Polynesia and northern Australia indicate ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions are indicative of the emergence of La Niña. Difference between expected and long-term average, SE SWP (Southern Cook Islands, Society Islands, Austral Islands), NE SWP (Northern Cook Islands, E Kiribati: Line Islands, Marquesas, Tuamotu Archipelago, Gambier Islands, Pitcairn Islands). A potential combination of 3-4 cyclones may reach severe category 3 or higher status. This owes to a moderate-to-strong La Niña signal, which the models are capturing, increasing forecast confidence. International Journal of Climatology, 25: 1541–1565. Advice. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology monitoring of the Niño3.4 region (central-western equatorial Pacific Ocean) shows sea surface temperature anomalies are below 0.8°C. The predicted SST and rainfall distribution suggest a more active SPCZ than normal is possible from near the Solomon Islands to Fiji. However, New Caledonia does experience a cyclone season from the end of November to May, with February to April being the most dangerous time. Kiwis can expect hot, dry weather for the next few days due to a ridge of high pressure lingering over the country until about Sunday, James said. More about tropical storms In the Pacific Islands, please contact your local national meteorological service for information about how this guidance should be interpreted. This can cut off communications and access to transportation, emergency assistance, medical care, and food and water. Figure 3: Plots of TC tracks and major tropical lows that were monitored for analogue seasons used in the 2020/21 seasonal forecast for the full season (November - April). This guidance is useful for sub-seasonal regional tropical cyclone guidance (see http://www.meteo.nc/espro/previcycl/cyclA.php.) New Caledonia also experiences earthquakes, tsunamis and bushfires. See https://tcoutlook.com/swpacific/ for more details related to this part of the outlook. Analysis of tropical cyclone track sinuosity in the South Pacific region using ARCGIS. Tag: New Caledonia cyclone Yasa . Our new tool, the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific , will assist forecasters and help local authorities to prepare for the coming season’s cyclone activity. "Between New Caledonia and Australia - Queensland, in particular - usually we get pretty big seasons in La Nina years." In addition, the subtropical jet and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) mutually interact and contribute to shear (which can disorganise cyclone systems) during extra-tropical transition. December 14, 2020. by marekkucera. Cyclone Betsy was the second of six tropical cyclones to affect Vanuatu during the 1991–92 season, seven weeks after Severe Tropical Cyclone Tia brought gale-force winds to northern Vanuatu. For the coming season, important differences are expected between the western and eastern halves of the Southwest Pacific basin and also for early and late season activity. In many cases they’ll spend the best part of their short-lived existence tucked away inside the swell … Find out more about our data sources. Knapp, and D.H. Levinson, 2012. Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to ... Cook subsequently made landfall on the Grande Terre Island of New Caledonia, between Houaïlou and Kouaoua at around 04:00 UTC (15:00 NCT) on April 10 where it started weakening due to frictional forces. The main TC genesis region is expected to lie within a band between 10 – 12°S (northwest of Vanuatu) to the west of the International Date Line but shifted slightly west of normal. However, it is worth noting that the 2020 October-initialised guidance indicates more severe TC activity than the October-initialised guidance before each of the last three TC seasons. However James said it's not yet clear exactly where the tropical cyclone was heading. MetService meteorologist Andrew James said Uesi was upgraded to a category 3 cyclone on Tuesday and was being monitored by Fiji's Meteorological Service.  The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is an extensive Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation feature that contains one of Earth’s most expansive and persistent convective cloud bands. Renwick, 2015. Summers are wet and humid while the winters are dry. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE forecast: ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates 80% (near normal amounts) of seasonal accumulated cyclone energy, a metric derived from tropical cyclone intensity and duration, across the basin as a whole. Multi-model ensemble forecast air pressure anomaly (hPa), January-March 2021; red (blue) shades indicate above (below) normal air pressure; areas of below normal pressure in the tropics can indicate an increased potential for tropical cyclone genesis, Information about the dynamical models used. The year label notes the first month in the analogue year selection (i.e. The domain for the seasonal outlook encompasses a basin that is defined by climatological properties of TC occurrences rather than geopolitical or meteorological service administrative boundaries (Diamond et al., 2012). Wellington would also have a mostly fine week, with temperatures ranging between 19C-23C. NB: The ECMWF forecast domain for ACE is from 160˚E to 120˚W. Significant rainfall, extreme winds, hazardous marine conditions and coastal damage are all possible leading up to and during these events. The new model could improve A total of 9 named cyclones are expected this coming season (spread of 8-10 based on past analogues), which is close to or slightly below normal activity. 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